ST.
PETERSBURG, January 22 (RIA Novosti) - Temperatures on
Earth have stabilized in the past decade, and the planet
should brace itself for a new Ice Age rather than global
warming, a Russian scientist said in an interview with
RIA Novosti Tuesday.
"Russian
and foreign research data confirm that global
temperatures in 2007 were practically similar to those
in 2006, and, in general, identical to 1998-2006
temperatures, which, basically, means that the Earth
passed the peak of global warming in 1998-2005," said
Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of a space research lab at
the Pulkovo observatory in St. Petersburg.
According
to the scientist, the concentration of carbon dioxide in
the Earth's atmosphere has risen more than 4% in the
past decade, but global warming has practically stopped.
It confirms the theory of "solar" impact on changes in
the Earth's climate, because the amount of solar energy
reaching the planet has drastically decreased during the
same period, the scientist said.
Had
global temperatures directly responded to concentrations
of "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere, they would have
risen by at least 0.1 Celsius in the past ten years,
however, it never happened, he said.
"A year
ago, many meteorologists predicted that higher levels of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would make the year
2007 the hottest in the last decade, but, fortunately,
these predictions did not become reality," Abdusamatov
said.
He also
said that in 2008, global temperatures would drop
slightly, rather than rise, due to unprecedentedly low
solar radiation in the past 30 years, and would continue
decreasing even if industrial emissions of carbon
dioxide reach record levels.
By 2041,
solar activity will reach its minimum according to a
200-year cycle, and a deep cooling period will hit the
Earth approximately in 2055-2060. It will last for about
45-65 years, the scientist added.
"By the
mid-21st century the planet will face another Little Ice
Age, similar to the Maunder Minimum, because the amount
of solar radiation hitting the Earth has been constantly
decreasing since the 1990s and will reach its minimum
approximately in 2041," he said.
The
Maunder Minimum occurred between 1645 and 1715, when
only about 50 spots appeared on the Sun, as opposed to
the typical 40,000-50,000 spots.
It
coincided with the middle and coldest part of the so
called Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North
America were subjected to bitterly cold winters.
"However,
the thermal inertia of the world's oceans and seas will
delay a 'deep cooling' of the planet, and the new Ice
Age will begin sometime during 2055-2060, probably
lasting for several decades," Abdusamatov said.
Therefore, the Earth must brace itself for a growing ice
cap, rather than rising waters in global oceans caused
by ice melting.
Mankind
will face serious economic, social, and demographic
consequences of the coming Ice Age because it will
directly affect more than 80% of the earth's population,
the scientist concluded.