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It's the "Oh Shit!" Moment on Iran
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by Dave Lindorff
Every horror movie has that "Oh Shit!" moment, when the
hero or heroes are huddled in some creepy hideout, and
suddenly something happens that tells you that the
monster is just around the corner, or just about to
attack. In "Jurassic Park" it was the pulsing ripples in
a cup of water, heralding the arrival of a T-Rex. In
"Jaws" it was the deep base music, letting you know that
a monstrous shark was about to attack.
Well, we just got our "Oh Shit!" moment with the
just-announced resignation of Admiral William J. Fallon,
the military commander of US Middle East operations.
Adm. Fallon, 63, famously said that an attack on Iran
would not happen "on my watch," and is widely believed
to have already threatened, along with a number of other
top generals and admirals, to quit the service if the
Bush administration were to launch an air attack on
Iran.
Put the pieces together. We know that the vice president
is obsessed with
a desire to attack Iran,
and has been since before he even took office. Bush has
repeatedly stressed that Iran cannot be permitted to
continue with its nuclear processing (he calls it their
"nukular" bomb program, though there is no evidence that
the country has a nuclear bomb development program, and
in fact the last National Intelligence Estimate on Iran
said there was not and hadn't been since 2003). And
Fallon has now quit.
The Eisenhower nuclear aircraft carrier strike force has
departed for stationing off Iran, joining forces already
in place there, and loaded to the brim with strike
aircraft, Tomahawk missiles, and even nuclear weapons.
It was long ago reported that stealth bombers had been
put in place in come of the countries of the old Soviet
Union north of Iran, as well as on the island of Diego
Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
All the elements, that is to say, are in place for a
massive air assault on Iranian targets, designed to
destroy its nuclear program, cripple its military
command and control, and--at least this is a stated
Cheney goal--to lead to the overthrow of the Iranian
government by its own people.
It is, of course, the strategy of madmen.
The US has no forces to send into Iran. All they can do
is bomb it. And bombing a country doesn't lead its
people to rise up. It leads them to rally 'round the
flag. Especially when the civilian casualties of our
not-so-"smart" bombs start to soar.
If such an attack were to happen, we can kiss goodbye to
six years of domestic peace, such as we've had. The
Iranians have considerable capability to inflict damage
on US targets of interest, both overseas and here in the
domestic US using assymetrical warfare techniques. The
worse part is, they'd be completely justified in doing
so, since any attack on them would be a crime against
peace--the gravest of all international crimes.
American troops already mired and pinned down in a war
in Iraq, would find themselves suddenly under attack by
Shia forces there, who for several years now have been
largely leaving them alone.
And oil, which just bumped up against $110 a barrel, an
all-time record, will double in price overnight, as the
whole Persian Gulf becomes a war zone.
We can expect massive launches of small boats armed with
missiles and torpedoes, as well as sophisticated
anti-ship missiles from shore batteries, all fired at US
ships in the Gulf, and it would be astounding if some or
even many vessels of the US fleet weren't sunk.
Meanwhile, tanker traffic in the Gulf, which accounts
for 20% or more of the world's oil, will cease as
insurance rates for those vessels goes through the roof.
The monster of war will be unleashed, and will not
easily be defeated. That's why Adm. Fallon was so
opposed to the whole idea. He knows that it will be a
disaster for the US militarily, economically and
politically.
The worst part is that Cheney knows this, too. He just
doesn't care. This is the man's parting shot as he
leaves office--to put the country into the throes of a
war so vicious that no one will think of pursuing him
for his long list of crimes against the nation and the
Constitution.
He is guessing--and he may be right--that the American
public will, sheep-like as always, rally to the cause,
with a new round of yellow magnet "ribbons" on their
cars. He is hoping--and he may be right--that war will
be a boon for the candidacy of Republican John McCain
and for embattled Republicans running for Congress.
It's a kind of political Hail Mary.
Oh Shit! Here it comes! |
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